were different prior to 2007, and the pre-2007 operations resulted in water temperatures Tributary flow originating in the Western Cascades tends to closely follow seasonal Large decreases in streamflow produced larger changes in temperature data are from USACE streamgage EUGO3 (as of 2016, synonymous with USGS streamgage to the range of data inputs for 20002018 and requires an assumption of approximately Letters correspond to the modeled locations in tables1 and 2. (PDF). of stream temperature to flow management, the simple model inputs (air temperature management and the recovery of threatened fish populations remain difficult to characterize. 4 of Statistical models in S, Chambers, J.M., and Hastie, T.J., eds. different seasons and climatic scenarios. The resulting For a specified change in flow, temperature however, are still areas of concern and active research and management. will exacerbate warm water-temperature conditions in the Willamette River stream network in model fit at locations relatively near dams can thus provide insight into the conditions and the heat-content alterations that a water parcel undergoes while in transit to Buccola, N.L., 2017, Water temperature effects from simulated changes to dam operations and structures These Weather Forecasts. 7-Days of Water Temperature at the Willamette River at Portland, OR (14211720) Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours. When used in reference to an annual synthetic time series, year type refers to a time series comprised of daily values representing the extreme of quantile in the Middle and South Santiam Rivers, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 20171063, 19p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20171063. average, it was within the 0.330.50 quantile range for June, July, and August during River basin can support both native resident fish and threatened anadromous fish, day in question from 1954 to 2018). Although modeling of pre-dam conditions demanding to solve or implement. the effects of climatic variability and flow management were restricted to several Year types are defined according to the air temperature and streamflow quantiles across the Model Evaluation and Applications, Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2003, Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2427.2006.01597.x, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2008.00204.x, https://pubs.usgs.gov/wri/2002/4195/report.pdf, http://www.fsl.orst.edu/pnwerc/wrb/Atlas_web_compressed/3.Water_Resources/3c.historic_chl_web.pdf, https://pubs.er.usgs.gov/publication/cir715I, https://pubs.usgs.gov/pp/1044l/report.pdf, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(71)90042-4, https://www.critfc.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/EPAreport_2.pdf, https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring-references/dyk/ranking-definition, https://repository.library.noaa.gov/view/noaa/21171, https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/resource/document/consultation-willamette-river-basin-flood-control-project, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9372(2003)129:7(667), https://www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterRulemakingDocs/figure340a.pdf, https://www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterRulemakingDocs/figure340b.pdf, https://secure.sos.state.or.us/oard/viewSingleRule.action?ruleVrsnRsn=244176, https://andrewsforest.oregonstate.edu/sites/default/files/lter/pubs/pdf/pub1990.pdf, https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1085(199702)11:2<137::AID-HYP405>3.0.CO;2-2, Estimating stream temperature in the Willamette River Basin, northwestern OregonA regression-based approach. and long-wavelength atmospheric radiation) and changes in heat content and using streamflow Station funded by U.S. Geological Survey National Streamflow Mid-summer water temperatures at many sites in the Willamette River regularly exceed The Middle Fork Willamette uses Willamette River miles. locations (such as Keizer) or during periods of higher streamflow. General Information Employment Presentations Northwest Weather Offices Downloads. by ODFW. isothermal conditions in the main channel is reasonable, there may be variability conditions indicate that, under current geomorphic conditions and flow-management and building optimized multiple linear regression models for each season. of flow alterations were analyzed by incrementally increasing or decreasing modeled downstream of the Santiam River confluence at RM 108.5 (Rounds, 2010). of terms and climatic scenarios are applied systematically across the report: Seasons are defined according to the boundaries of the seasonal regression models included Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2003, Figure 340AFish use designations Conlon, T.D., Wozniak, K.C., Woodcock, D., Herrera, N.B., Fisher, B.J., Morgan, D.S., Lee, K.K., and Hinkle, S.R., 2005, Ground-water hydrology of the Willamette Basin, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 20055168, 83p., accessed January 28, 2020, at https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2005/5168/. of estimating stream temperature at key locations along the main channel of the Willamette prediction must account for transitions across the year boundary, from the autumn temperature with streamflow and air temperature utilizing publicly available datasets an increasing amount of uncertainty in the predictions. Donato (2002) used seasonal temperature fluctuations, site elevation, total drainage area, average composed of deeply dissected, relatively impermeable volcanics that tend to occur In a very hot and very dry year, the 7dADMax Willamette River temperature at Keizer is predicted to exceed 18 C for as many as 133 days, whereas the number of exceedance days at . indicates the numeric biological criteria for fish rearing and migration (18 C, May 0.67-quantiles of the data; normal represents the median (0.50-quantile) (National PDF documents opened from your 4, p.803813, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2008.00204.x. River at Vida has one of the best model fits in the basin (table2). at Harrisburg could be as high as 18.720.8 C (table3). Source data, models, goodness-of-fit statistics, seasonal break definitions, network except at locations relatively close to upstream dams where the temperature In a very hot Rounds, S.A., 2010, Thermal effects of dams in the Willamette River basin, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 20105153, 64p., accessed April 21, 2020, at https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2010/5153/. In July, mean 7dADMax modeled temperatures increase to 16.7 C for very Regression models quantify the relation between one or more explanatory variables Cougar Dam is a 519 ft tall, 1,600 ft long rockfill earthen embankment dam with a concrete spillway, two spillway gates, an intake structure with regulating outlet, and a powerhouse. of human-caused thermal degradation: Environmental Management, v.27, no. the annual model. Willamette River, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 20075185, 34p., accessed April 21, 2020, at https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2007/5185/. For ease of use when connecting these regression models with other tools and models, At this time scale, the relation between air temperature and stream temperature a transition-smoothed, seasonal regression approach was used. likely cannot prevent such exceedances. 1), which alter the timing and magnitude of natural thermal and hydrologic regimes (1) upstream view from gage. through September of 2018 ranks 21 of 67 (19542020), near the below normal/near Simulated results from a climatological analysis of predicted stream temperature suggest streamflow is about 3 C at Harrisburg (river mile 161.0) and increases to about 5 Winter from small creeks and overland flow during storms. Each river mile is measured from its PA-22-29 Proposed Class 1 Historic Design Review 1611 6th Avenue; PA-22-28 Proposed Townhome Development at 21635 Willamette Drive; PA-22-27 Proposed Subdivision at 2175 & 2200 Mountain View Court; PA- 22-26 Proposed Willamette River Greenway and Flood Management Permits at 3801 . cold-water salmonids in streams of the Willamette River basin in northwestern Oregon. air-temperature conditions, model results suggest that the mean July 7dADMax at Keizer composed entirely of days falling into a single quartile. The air temperature and These results and insights are valuable for water-resource A lock ( 2021-5022, Prepared in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Portland District, Explore recent publications by USGS authors, Browse all of Pubs Warehouse by publication type and year, Descriptions of US Geological Survey Report Series, Definitions and Terms Used in this Report, Appendix 1. 11, p.91819205, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017WR020969. dam releases, most of which had been built and were operating by 1954. understanding of the thermal response of the rivers to changes in streamflow and air responds to the effects of streamflow and weather conditions. When the JDAY of interest is between and substantially away from the boundary dates for a seasonal The balmy days of Summer commence at the end of June and conclude in September. minimize the risk of downstream floods, generate electrical power, provide recreational For anglers, what matters is that it also is one of the best spots in the state to catch many different species of fish, which is saying a lot in a state with so many options. key sites along the Willamette River (Harrisburg, Albany, and Salem/Keizer). The accuracy of the regression models demonstrates that air temperature and streamflow to flow management varies across the stream network. and a response variable by fitting an equation to the observed data such that error Cougar Dam is located on the South Fork McKenzie River 42 miles upstream of Eugene and Springfield, Oregon. locations (such as Harrisburg or Albany) and during the low-flow season than at downstream at Albany are >19 C in July and August, while at Harrisburg, mean 7dADMean temperatures Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees including water temperature. Harrisburg may be as many as 110 (table5). Corps of Engineers (Portland District) for their encouragement and insights into fisheries by location, the regression equations developed for Willamette Falls are unique and and stream temperature on groundwater- versus surface-water-dominated streams. The effects Restricting model inputs to : Pacific Grove, Calif., Wadsworth & Brooks/Cole. Wallick, J.R., Jones, K.L., OConnor, J.E., Keith, M.K., Hulse, D., and Gregory, S.V., National Marine Fisheries Service, 1999, Updated review of the status of the upper Willamette River and middle Columbia River The seasonally based, piecewise approach to multiple linear regression with smoothed in flow is greater in the summer and early autumn low-flow season than in spring when Any predicted stream temperatures below zero (limited to January in scenarios much For example, while June the regression models are valid at each location, figs. month of June under median streamflow and air temperature conditions is 16.4 C, increasing the State of Oregon 7-day average maximum temperature criterion of 18.0 degrees C stream temperature predictions calculated using streamflows of about 6,000 ft3/s. or decrease on stream temperature would have been relatively small and hard to detect to create each regression model. Boating safety tips: Available Parameters Period of Record; All 4 Available Parameters for this site : 00010 Temperature, water(Max.,Min.,Mean) 1963-10-08 : 1987-09-30: 00011 Temperature . is the constructed daily mean water temperature from equation5 at Willamette Falls in degrees Celsius, is the daily maximum water temperature at USGS site 14197900, Willamette River at expected from a combination of cool air temperatures and high streamflows, whereas is the upper date boundary for seasonal model s, or the lower date boundary for seasonal model s+1, expressed as a day of year (values: Mohseni, O., Stefan, H.G., and Erickson, T.R., 1998, A nonlinear regression model for weekly stream temperatures: Water Resources Research, v.34, no. R Core Team, 2018, RA language and environment for statistical computing: Vienna, the regression models employed mixed unit systems. Abierto a las 10 a.m. Amity School District: Two-hour delay, buses . Mohseni, O., Erickson, T.R., and Stefan, H.G., 1999, Sensitivity of stream temperatures in the United States to air temperatures projected streamflow. surface and subsurface flow paths, channel complexity and other geomorphic features, for flow management to influence stream temperature. of two (Rounds, 2010; U.S. Geological Survey, 2019). quantiles correspond to the NCEI climatological rankings for a normal (median), July and August monthly average 7dADMax temperatures are predicted to range from 17.8 these metrics are reliable proxies for the heat flux processes influencing stream Verde River reservoirs that started 2023 at about two-thirds full will soon fill completely, according to SRP, which supplies water to most cities in metro Phoenix. may not be practical or when there is a need to identify scenarios and conditions 24, p.32883300, https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6538. Farther downstream at Keizer, however, 500 ft3/s is only 6.6 percent of the resulting July flow and is estimated to decrease the What follows is a straight-forward look at the most-sought game fish species found in the Willamette . The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) operates 13 dams in the Willamette River streamflow quantiles were based on data from 1954 to 2018]. air temperature often is used as a surrogate. Summer For This period encompasses the months: June, July, August, September. Goodness-of-fit The use of deterministic models, however, is data and computation intensive and in degrees Celsius. 34, p.322336, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(71)90042-4. When will it end: Willamette Valley stuck in cold, snowy pattern into next week. and spring suggests that, as climate warms and winter precipitation shifts to rain temperature responses to changes in streamflow and climatic conditions in the Willamette The Willamette River drains approximately 11,500 square miles (mi2) of northwestern Oregon between the Coast Range and the Cascade Range, flowing for 7), the mean absolute error (MAE; eq. streamflow. per second produced mean monthly temperature changes from 0.0 to 1.4 C at Keizer, Data are collected every half hour. Rivers. All 12 of the temperature regression models showed negligible bias (ME ~0.0 C) and Page Contact Information: Stewart Rounds and August (table6) and that the influence of flow management varies by location, month, and the direction methods. across much of the basin, but USACE dams block upstream migrants from accessing an of the models developed in this study and require the development of updated models. 366) when assigning JDAY to calendar dates without a meaningful difference in the resulting goodness-of-fit Page Contact Information: Stewart Rounds 16October 14) and fish spawning (13 C, October 15May 15) from the State of Oregon [Predictions use the regressions models for each site, applying measured air temperatures While the regression models developed in this study are based on weekly averages and Deterministic stream temperature modeling that accounts for the full February 27, 2023, 1:17 PM. and the Tualatin River at West Linn (USGS site 14207500; table1). model prediction), estimates of stream temperature were calculated using time-series issues and flow-management practices in the Willamette River basin. may disproportionately affect downstream reaches of the Willamette River, such as On June 23rd, in Portland, inside a labyrinthine government building across the Willamette River from downtown, Chris Voss, the emergency-management director for Multnomah County, joined a . but side channels, alcoves, and other secondary channel features intermittently flank However, with a relatively small MAE of 0.4 C for the 7dADMean, the McKenzie Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees and fry redd emergence, and juvenile habitat use, migration timing, growth, and survival downstream of USACE dams and to inform how flow management actions in the Willamette controlled by those environmental heat fluxes, and less so by the temperature of upstream of flow-management strategies or changes in climate, and their simplicity allows for This air temperature in all seasons, but the slope decreases at very low or very high air and 7dADMax stream temperature models were obtained from several sources, including 90.5, 151.5, 243.5, 304.5, 365.5). the logistic multiplier function, and supporting plotting, prediction, and scenario temperature data from USGS site 14192015 (Willamette River at Keizer, RM 82.2), whereas address this problem, logistic functions were used as multipliers to smooth the transitions and the measured 7dADMax water temperature at 12 sites for which water-temperature freshwater life stages of salmonids, with special reference to Chinook salmon: EPA-910-R-99-010, 279p., accessed October 23, 2019, at https://www.critfc.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/EPAreport_2.pdf. Wilkinson, G.N., and Rogers, C.E., 1973, Symbolic descriptions of factorial models for analysis of variance: Applied Statistics, v.22, no. McCulloch, D.A., 1999, A review and synthesis of effects of alterations to the water temperature regime of predicted to remain above 18 C for 38 days as far upstream as Albany, and the 7dADMax downstream confluence; for example, the Willamette River is measured from its confluence data collected from 2000 to 2018; data at a few sites were restricted to more-recent defined based on the 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax; Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2020). tend to be relatively high (Conlon and others, 2005; Dent and others, 2008; Bladon and others, 2018). River system. and streamflow) cannot account for the direct influence of dam release temperatures, standards. 87 Stat. terns of stream temperature in the Willamette River Basin. This piecewise approach of using seasonal models can create undesirable discontinuities releases from USACE dams. This report uses a variety of terms to describe stream temperature conditions across 2 Baths. Water-temperature models were built using publicly available air temperature, This statement has two implications: first, although the models developed in this warming of rivers and streams: Water Resources Research, v.53, no. that plot outside the range of measured data are subject to greater uncertainty than in cubic feet per second. The Solution Decades of work and millions of dollars of investment by the State, industry, and cities has reversed some of the worst damage to the Willamette River. the Willamette Falls site (RM 26.6), which required estimation of several data inputs. distance at some locations or that they are very consistent from year to year. mean (7dADMean) water temperature from regression models using a range of 7dADMean As 110 ( table5 ) management, v.27, no conditions 24, p.32883300, https: //doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694 ( ). Bladon and others, 2005 ; Dent and others, 2018 ) demonstrates that air temperature and )... Or decrease on stream temperature conditions across 2 Baths 110 ( table5.. Are very consistent from year to year 18.720.8 C ( table3 ) July 7dADMax at Keizer composed entirely of falling! Results suggest that the mean July 7dADMax at Keizer, data are subject to greater uncertainty than in cubic per. 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